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Home / Baccarat / Strategy
 
The Strategy of Baccarat
 

Baccarat is a game of pure luck. The game is played using a fixed set of rules for the player and the dealer, and these rules represent the best odds of winning for both the player and for the house. Calculations have been made that show the odds of the player winning are 44.62%, losing 45.85%, and 9.53% to tie. Thus it would seem to be to your advantage to bet on the house winning on every hand.

Baccarat systems are few and far between. That is, systems that are designed specifically for that game, but many other mathematical betting systems may fair well in this general card game.

You may have heard of the 1 - 3 - 2 - 6 baccarat system. With this approach you keep track of what you bet over the course of four hands. The objective of course is to bet a little with the potential for a larger return. With this specific baccarat system, you can risk two dollars for a return of ten.

It goes like so:

  • First, bet one unit. If you win add another, making the second bet a total of three units.
  • If you win the second bet there are six units on the table. Remove four, making the third bet two units.
  • If the third bet wins, add two more units for a total of six on the fourth bet.
  • If the fourth bet wins, you collect a total of 12 units, ten of pure profit.
So if you lose the first bet using this baccarat system, you lose one unit. If you win the first bet but lose the second, that's two units you've lost. If you win the second bet but lose the third bet, your profit is two units. If you win the first three bets but lose the fourth, you break even. If you lose the second bet five out of six times, and then win four consecutive bets once, you break even.
This baccarat system works by the nature of the game being and even-money odds game. The same system will work for any casino game that pays out even-money.
This system will work only in the short term. The casino's always win in the long run... don't doubt it.

To even out the odds the house charges a commission (usually 5%) on winning player bets placed on the house. How should this change the way a player wagers?

Factoring in the commission it turns out that you are still slightly better off by betting that the house will win. This assumes the commission is the usual 5%, however, should the commission change then you have to change strategy. If the commission is less than 5% then it is always to your advantage to bet with the house, while if the commission is more than 5% it pays to bet on the player winning.

Removing the tie hands in the event there is no payoff, the odds of the player winning are 49.32% and for losing 50.68%. For various commissions we can calculate the following average payoffs then, assuming 100 wagers of $1 were made.

 
4% commission
Betting on the player
Betting with the house
 
 
Winning
$49.32
$50.68 * 96%   $48.65
 
 
Losing
$50.68
$49.32
 
 
Difference
($1.36)
($0.67)
 

You lose less by betting with the dealer.


 
5% commission
Betting on the player
Betting with the house
 
 
Winning
$49.32
$50.68 * 96%   $48.65
 
 
Losing
$50.68
$49.32
 
 
Difference
($1.36)
($1.17)
 

You lose less by betting with the dealer.

 
6% commission
Betting on the player
Betting with the house
 
 
Winning
$49.32
$50.68 * 96%   $48.65
 
 
Losing
$50.68
$49.32
 
 
Difference
($1.36)
($1.68)
 

You lose less by betting with the dealer.

Baccarat sometimes allows for a bet to be made for a tie, and sometimes doesn't (mini baccarat typically played online usually does). Although the odds of 8 to 1 may sound appealing, it is considered one of the worst wagers in the casino, so don't bother making this bet part of your baccarat strategy.

Do you want to read more about Baccarat:
Introduction
History
Rules

Or play the game online?

 
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